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Sunday, January 14, 2018

democrats and rural america: the problem

Democrats are seriously missing the mark on their issues management with rural, "conservative", voters.  I've lived in Western rural areas most of my life before moving to Seattle, WA and then Tacoma, WA. I am pretty confident I can write this essay, just on the strength of my own experience.

I'll break this down in an outline form, just for the sake of simple taxonomy. For the sake of this essay, a Democrat is presumed to be someone with these qualities:

- Educated
- Urban
- Non-macho

Since those are the stereotypes that are pre-eminent where I've been.


  1. Social Issues
    1. Guns
      1. Hunting
        1. Hunting is one of the Great Myths and Identities of the rural American. It is connected with 400 years of frontier living. When Greenpeace or PETA endorse a Democrat, someone in this Identity rightly can presume that Hunting is being targeted. 
        2. Democrats are generally presumed to not hunt, nor to have roots in the land beyond a hippie "woo". 
      2. 2nd Amendment
        1. The 2nd amendment is understood (historically correct or not) to be a mechanism to allow militias to form to overthrow the government. This means that limitations on guns are seen as an attack on the 2nd Amendment.
    2. Religion
      1. The De Facto religion of rural Americans is a flavor of Fundamentalist or Evangelical Christianity. This strongly conflicts with the Urban American, who is assumed to be godless. This is an old rural prejudice about the city, but has a certain grain of truth.
      2. Democrats don't put Christian religion front and center. Why should they: cities are multi-religious... 
    3. LGBT+ issues
      1. It's not really relevant. "No one knows" a queer person, and anyway, those people are somewhere else, and anyway, they are godless. Why cater to them? What about real problems, like why there are no jobs? (One might note that there's a reason cities have a common story of queer people finding acceptance.....)
  2. Government
    1. The Democrat vision is of a reasonably strong central government, usually driven by experiences in an urban environment.  This is counter to the rural experience, which is often set in a place where the only help you can get in a crisis is "too" far away. Whether that be a policeman, or a neighbor. 
      1. Therefore, a good rural government doesn't limit what someone can do to help themself.
    2. The Democrats see government as a servant of the people and by the people; the rural vision is of a government from a far away place laying down regulations.
    3. Taxes are for larger governments... if you want a smaller government, vote for less taxes. 
    4. Military adventures - why do them? Mind your own business is an old American value that we seem to have forgotten. 
    5. Law and order: respect the police, because you need them to deal with thefts on your land.
  3. Environment
    1. The common complaint is that the EPA and other governmental entities are making laws that are both irrelevant, limiting, and useless to the local situation. 
    2. Environmental laws limit what farmers and ranchers can do with their land. Isn't it their land that they own?  (I would like to note that this idea directly leads to horrific pollution)
  4. Distrust elites.
    1. Distrust education. 
      1. This is basically rooted in the fact that education and apostasy are linked.
      2. It is also rooted in the fact that education tells others what to do, and presupposes the excellence of knowledge of ignorance, making it non-democratic and thus Un-American(this is also a core tension on the Democrat side - direct democracy and populism are in conflict with education and knowledgeable people making choices).
    2. Distrust media.
      1. The media aren't rural.
      2. The media often don't take the time to understand a subject well enough for an expert to accept it.

From a pure policy perspective, some of the key policies that matter to rural voters that simply are irrelevant in its day to day effects in urban circles

  1. The Farm Bill
    1. This is the central planning document for US agriculture. 
  2. Water Rights
    1. Long story. Much bloodshed. Key to the West.
  3. Highway maintenance
    1. Lots of roads, no tax base to maintain them.
  4. Mining regulations
    1. Done far away from cities.
  5. Hunting regulations
(The list goes on)

These conflicts and concepts are deeply rooted in an ideology I'll call the "Traditional and Low-density Ideology", or the TLI. The TLI is the product of history - specifically, white history and myths - and the system of living in a low density rural population.  Deeper core values, some of them incoherent, that are generating these conflicts include (but are not limited to):
  1. Liberty is the key to America.
    1. Limiting what the self can do is contra liberty.
  2. Property rights are fundamental 
    1. Ownership of property is not to be limited
      1. Taxation is a limitation and stricture on property, so it must be resisted
    2. Police are for enforcing property rights
    3. Real estate property is to be desired.
  3. Self sufficiency - to depend on others is a moral problem.
    1. Therefore, drill for oil in the USA
    2. Don't involve yourself in other country's affairs, because it's immoral to do so.
    3. Government services to help others make man immoral
  4. A rough Christianity, vaguely Fundamentalist, is the moral way of life.
    1. Being straight, with kids, is also a kind of big deal.
  5. Assimilation into (loosely defined) white culture is the Proper Way.
  6. Distrust of change
  7. Hunting is a core right.
  8. People are not naturally good.
I also want to say that there's a physical roughness to the culture that is alien to peaceable urban culture. 

Some of these aspects can be assembled into a platform for a rural party. It'll look a little like the GOP, because the rural parts of America have voted for, and selected, parts of the GOP for many years. Some approaches that can be used for a principled rural party representing their ways of life:
  • Be skeptical of change. If a policy is working well enough, why change it?
  • Prefer allowing social change naturally, not sponsoring it with government programs and regulation.
  • Distrust policies and programs that assume people will generally do the right thing. 
  • Limit involvement in other countries.
  • Implement family policies that produce well-adjusted children. 
  • Prefer homeownership and intrusions on property rights.
  • Hunting should be a protected activity.
None of those approaches are really Democrat; they are sort of Republican. But they are definitely the "Republican in the Street" sort of thing, if you were to talk to them about what they care about, as opposed to what Fox News tells them they should care about.

I hope that a party embodying these kinds of ideas comes into existence. The Democrats have overspecialized in terms of its identities and have issues reaching outside of their base. These issues could, in part, be brought under the Democrat tent, but most won't be a comfortable fit.

The other thing I hope is that over time we dismantle the two-party system to form a multi-party system encompassing 4 or 5 parties. I think that will lead to stronger parties and more trusted institutions.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Saturday night brief

Evening.

It is 12:37PM in Pyongyang.

Trump's been running his mouth again on Twitter. Broadly, he is apparently limiting his options to military force, at least rhetorically. As the House Representative for my district, Rep. Jayapal,  put it earlier today, "My heart was chilled because I believe this president has been itching to go to war.".  And he called his opponent in the 2016 election a warmonger....

There's been a slight shakeup in the NK central military commission, according to Yonap, the SK news source. I don't have enough knowledge to grasp the portents. At this level of power, personnell is policy.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/08/0200000000AEN20171008000700315.html

The expectation is that there's a missile test coming up soon, likely in the next 7 days. South Korea and the US have bent their electronic eye upon the region.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/08/0200000000AEN20171008001200315.html

A PR dump from North Korea on counterterrorism blames the United States for sending a strike force of some sort earlier this year that they caught (claimed to be South Korean / US forces), and the DPRK calls it terrorism.  Leaving aside their propagandistic attack on the US, I'm wondering about the strike force. Did such a thing exist? Was it more than a tourist group being naively snoopy? I wonder.
http://exploredprk.com/news/dprk-representative-on-principled-stand-of-dprk-on-terrorism/

Miscellaneous tweets don't appear to have a concentrated focus. Most at this sample time seem to be vaguely anti-war (I don't mean committed peaceniks, to be clear).

Some thoughts on what is likely to transpire in the short term....

Trump wants war, and doesn't seem too picky about how

I don't see any reports of significant troop movement, such as what would be required for a full invasion into North Korea. I would guess, therefore, that any strike Trump orders would be a limited air based strike, possibly with paratroopers. First pass would be probably be targeting Mr. Kim and the nuclear weapons, along with the weapons aimed at Seoul. This will have to be mostly perfect in order to remove the risk of retaliation.  It won't be perfect, because the first casualty of war is the plan.  It'll be bloody. If the US can strike fast enough and present a fait accompli with limited repercussions, China will probably settle for a unified Korea and a US pullback. I doubt that will occur, though.

Best of luck, dear reader. May you make your peace with Yahweh before the bombs fall.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Thursday night quick brief

Good evening.

It is 2:16PM in Pyongyang.

No news of substance regarding North Korea today.

However, Trump is threatening to sabotage the Iran deal, which would sabotage, in turn, diplomacy with North Korea (and all other states). Teddy Roosevelt is often quoted as "carry a big stick and speak softly". Something he perhaps was better at saying than doing.

Reminder: next week is expected to be a significant action by North Korea, as it contains several significant dates in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe for the North Korean system.

Trump mumbles something about a coming storm, who knows what that will result in.... guy says a lot of things that come to nothing.
https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/916084993968840705

South Koreans are blase in the face of North Korea's risks. This is probably not the most reasonable thing to do, but it's unpleasant to imagine all your family and friends dying in nuclear fire.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/commentary-nuclear-threat-north-korea-south-koreans-apathetic-9280934

Democrat Rep. Ted Lieu flames Trump bigly, says no one knows whether the US supports diplomacy towards North Korea.
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/354189-lieu-trump-has-no-strategy-on-north-korea

Not seeing any real bot activity.

The US is focused a great deal on the tragedy in Vegas, which probably explains a lot of why North Korea is not in the popular eye.


Summary: Stock up on food & water enough for 4-5 days indoors (remember, radioactivity decreases exponentially, and after 100 hours, it's 1/100 of the initial power). Enjoy life with your family. Next week we may all die in a fit of ego and miscalculation: have you made peace with God?