Saturday night brief

Evening.

It is 12:37PM in Pyongyang.

Trump's been running his mouth again on Twitter. Broadly, he is apparently limiting his options to military force, at least rhetorically. As the House Representative for my district, Rep. Jayapal,  put it earlier today, "My heart was chilled because I believe this president has been itching to go to war.".  And he called his opponent in the 2016 election a warmonger....

There's been a slight shakeup in the NK central military commission, according to Yonap, the SK news source. I don't have enough knowledge to grasp the portents. At this level of power, personnell is policy.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/08/0200000000AEN20171008000700315.html

The expectation is that there's a missile test coming up soon, likely in the next 7 days. South Korea and the US have bent their electronic eye upon the region.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/08/0200000000AEN20171008001200315.html

A PR dump from North Korea on counterterrorism blames the United States for sending a strike force of some sort earlier this year that they caught (claimed to be South Korean / US forces), and the DPRK calls it terrorism.  Leaving aside their propagandistic attack on the US, I'm wondering about the strike force. Did such a thing exist? Was it more than a tourist group being naively snoopy? I wonder.
http://exploredprk.com/news/dprk-representative-on-principled-stand-of-dprk-on-terrorism/

Miscellaneous tweets don't appear to have a concentrated focus. Most at this sample time seem to be vaguely anti-war (I don't mean committed peaceniks, to be clear).

Some thoughts on what is likely to transpire in the short term....

Trump wants war, and doesn't seem too picky about how

I don't see any reports of significant troop movement, such as what would be required for a full invasion into North Korea. I would guess, therefore, that any strike Trump orders would be a limited air based strike, possibly with paratroopers. First pass would be probably be targeting Mr. Kim and the nuclear weapons, along with the weapons aimed at Seoul. This will have to be mostly perfect in order to remove the risk of retaliation.  It won't be perfect, because the first casualty of war is the plan.  It'll be bloody. If the US can strike fast enough and present a fait accompli with limited repercussions, China will probably settle for a unified Korea and a US pullback. I doubt that will occur, though.

Best of luck, dear reader. May you make your peace with Yahweh before the bombs fall.

Thursday night quick brief

Good evening.

It is 2:16PM in Pyongyang.

No news of substance regarding North Korea today.

However, Trump is threatening to sabotage the Iran deal, which would sabotage, in turn, diplomacy with North Korea (and all other states). Teddy Roosevelt is often quoted as "carry a big stick and speak softly". Something he perhaps was better at saying than doing.

Reminder: next week is expected to be a significant action by North Korea, as it contains several significant dates in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe for the North Korean system.

Trump mumbles something about a coming storm, who knows what that will result in.... guy says a lot of things that come to nothing.
https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/916084993968840705

South Koreans are blase in the face of North Korea's risks. This is probably not the most reasonable thing to do, but it's unpleasant to imagine all your family and friends dying in nuclear fire.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/commentary-nuclear-threat-north-korea-south-koreans-apathetic-9280934

Democrat Rep. Ted Lieu flames Trump bigly, says no one knows whether the US supports diplomacy towards North Korea.
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/354189-lieu-trump-has-no-strategy-on-north-korea

Not seeing any real bot activity.

The US is focused a great deal on the tragedy in Vegas, which probably explains a lot of why North Korea is not in the popular eye.


Summary: Stock up on food & water enough for 4-5 days indoors (remember, radioactivity decreases exponentially, and after 100 hours, it's 1/100 of the initial power). Enjoy life with your family. Next week we may all die in a fit of ego and miscalculation: have you made peace with God?

Wednesday night quick brief

Good evening.

It's 1:36PM in Pyongyang.

Long day, so this will be a quick brief.

It's suggested by different sources that Oct 9 or 10 would be another test. Stay aware, don't panic.

Secretary of State Tillerson is definitely staying, or so he says (A popular song in the Trump administration, often days before being fired or resigning).

Yonap claims that US channels shut down after the most recent nuclear test.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/05/0200000000AEN20171005000600315.html?input=rss

It's reported that North Korean workers are being exported to work in terrible conditions. Regrettably, the Workers Parties always seem to be bad for the workers.
https://apnews.com/8b493b7df6e147e98d19f3abb5ca090a


Doesn't seem like much of moment going on. I kind of like that....

Tuesday evening brief, Oct 3

Good evening.

It is 1:19PM in Pyongyang.

US Pacific Command is doing short range defense exercises with South Korea.
https://www.army.mil/article/194581/

38 North remarks on the 1980 uprising in South Korea. Perusing through the documents 38 North presents, it seems clear that the North Koreans had, at that time, a definite feeling of solidarity with the South Koreans. I wonder if a reunification could be accomplished that would defang the threat of nuclear war. It's tolerable to have neutral nations have nukes, you know...
http://www.38north.org/2017/10/tshorrock100317/

Congress is running its nose into diplomacy. This signals a significant loss of faith in POTUS, as the role of POTUS is, among other things,  to generally conduct foreign policy - by the constitution.  I don't, personally, find the idea of diminishing the powers of the President - of any party - to be a poor idea. Shame that it takes a Trump to do it though.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/353622-bipartisan-bill-would-toughen-north-korea-sanctions-require-trumps-strategy

Miscellaneous hawks on Twitter questing for war and bashing caution as liberal and peaceniks.

Summary: crickets.

Tuesday morning brief

Good morning.

It is 11:50 PM in Pyongyang.

The Trump administration has officials trying to smooth over differences between Mr. Tillerson and Trump. The Trump line is that diplomacy via direct talking is over. I question how change is intended to occur.....
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/10/trump-administration-says-not-time-talk-north-korea/#OCvF6luooBp0Koku.97
http://www.gulf-times.com/story/566018

The official transcript of the Secretary's remarks is here. It only confirms to me that Trump is unreliable and looking for war.
https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/09/274563.htm

A breakdown of the United States decision making timeline for a response to nuclear ICBM attack.  I advise reading, because reality should not be avoided. It's too early for a stiff drink, but I rather would like one now.
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/launch-under-attack-feasible/

Putin calls for restraint. Note that Russia borders North Korea on the far northeast. If war breaks out, it will certainly force Russia to address it. Like China, Russia largely benefits from a stable peninsula. One wonders if Putin has buyer's remorse over Trump's election.
http://tass.com/politics/968636

The Wall Street Journal was able to send a video crew into Pyongyang. They remark on the prosperousness and high level of the standard of living. I encourage you to watch the video.
http://www.wsj.com/video/inside-north-korea-with-wsj-reporters/2303BBB7-6DBB-4DE5-B8EA-EEDE98419922.html

The EU contacts in North Korea are going a bit dim.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-eu/eus-diplomatic-back-channel-in-pyongyang-goes-cold-idUSKCN1C81SM

And finally, black humor.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/09/nuclear-mindfulness

Unreliable sources

The twitter account claiming to be FM Ri of North Korea keeps posting that NK wants normal relations and recognitiion as a nuclear state. While I have no confirmation of that account, it at least harmonizes with typical Communist propaganda.

Saw my first well-designed pro-war meme come through; looks like it first was cooked up in April.

There's a set of complaints that Trump is being "Weak" for not starting the war already.


Summary
The Trump administration is incoherent and pulling in two different directions: peace (Mattis, Tillerson) and war (Trump). Trump, regrettably, is harder to fire than Mattis or Tillerson. 

Monday evening briefing, Oct 2

Good evening.

It is 1:20PM in Pyongyang.

Reputable Sources

A report in Yonap (South Korean official media) indicates that US POTUS Press Secretary Sanders confirmed a Presidential lack of interest in diplomatic options.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/03/0200000000AEN20171003000300315.html?sns=tw

The New York Times suggests that many Americans are living in denial about dealing with North Korea.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/world/asia/north-korea-tillerson-nuclear-talks.html?_r=0

The Defcon blog suggested several days ago that China is contemplating the limits of its sponsorship of North Korea
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2017/10/02/thinking-unthinkable-china-abandoning-north-korea/

An account claiming to be the Russian Embassy to the DPRK has published two scans of pages from what it says are recent papers in the computer field. Interesting business, I'd be more  than happy to flip through them.
https://twitter.com/RusEmbDPRK/status/915049363168210944

Seoul has a Unification Ministry. But no one in power cares. :-(
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/north-korea-tension-sidelines-south-s-unification-ministry

Unreliable Twitter

• Claims there are concerns about weapons being loaded onto container ships and sent into US ports.
• Anti-war botnets are running
• Hawks are, per usual, screaming.

Summary - status quo, but the secretary of state in the USA has publically been denounced by the POTUS, and things are jittery.

mass shootings & gun control

The US - my country - needs to address its gun death situation. In 2017, there have been roughly one "mass shooting" every day of the year.

Might be, that is a problem.

I grew up hunting. Guns are a part of how I grew up. I have guns; I know how to handle them, clean them, and use them responsibly. I expect to pass this down to my children.  What guns were not to me is a religion. They didn't keep me safe versus the Army or the police. People who talked like they did were the fringe and were a little unrealistic, I always thought. Guns are like a sharp knife: a tool, not a talisman.

Later in life I saw people open carrying in sleepy rural suburbs. Not "long rifle in truck" during hunting season, but carrying a pistol and walking their dog. Others would take pistols to potluck dinners.  What?!?, I thought, there's no measurable threat of violence. I have no problem if there's a reasonable threat of violence and someone wants to have a weapon in self defense. I talked to a friend who was big into guns. They explained - it's a talisman, a thing to display your allegiance to guns and the second amendment.

This mentality of talismanic gun ownership isn't reasonable. It's a tool. If you want to commit rebellion against the government, guns can be used usefully. It's not healthy to have massive amounts of gun ownership preparing against the day of Communist takeover. If that's you - think about this- wouldn't the totalitarian figure out how to get you on his side first? The best totalitarian thought is the one where the majority of the society agrees with it!

Seems to me like the US needs to tackle two things:

• Removing the talisman from the culture. 
• Hollywood should stop glorifying gun violence as being useful and effective.
• Regulating gun ownership via:
• Instituting mental health checks on gun owners past and present
• Requiring licenses for ownership past 5 guns
• Banning open carry within city limits
• Requiring concealed carry permits for pistols
• Requiring membership in the national guard (or a state equivalent) for owning weapons of war (actual weapons of war, not ones people ignorant of guns fear).

All of those, to the best of my knowledge, cohere with the Second Amendment and the general understanding of the Constitution, while preserving the ability for the community as represented by local police and licensing authorities to monitor them.

Monday morning brief, oct 2

Good morning.

It's midnight in Pyongyang.

More ripples in Twitterverse of Trump undercutting Tillerson. Hawks eating up Trump's gesture towards military force. When the POTUS says these things, it will factor into NK's risk profile if it sees a US force coming towards it, whether peaceful or not.

The Warmbier torture story is still going around and around.. It is being used and will be used as a bolster for war. "Look at the grieving parents".  Remember that the medical examiners found no evidence of torture - and noted that he'd been well cared for. Something had previously aphyxicated him. The coroner also noted that many things can cause pain and don't cause lasting damage. So on balance, don't believe the propaganda, but do remember something happened, whether self inflicted or not.

The Wall Street Journal has a column today focusing on deterrence and containment rather than simple acceptance or simple war. The writer reminds us that this is the strategy used for the Soviet Union. My estimate is that this is probably where the bulk of the realpolitik types in the USA fall. But I am afraid I've never heard of North Korea trying to spread Communism, unlike the USSR. So perhaps "Deterrence" alone is all that is needed. I would rather avoid war, myself.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/between-war-and-acceptance-a-third-way-on-north-korea-1506956016

Summary: the full effects of Trump's lack of leadership skill are still sinking in. I anticipate later today or tomorrow we'll start seeing the diplomatic shadows visibly shift as various statements are made and emissaries go from place to place. Tillerson's resigning is still definitely a potential outcome. Non-Trump conservatives are looking for options besides war. 

Sunday Brief

Apologies for the lack of morning briefing. Familial duties summoned my attention.  Let's see if any change in the situation has presented itself in the last 18-20 hours....

It is 10:38 AM on Monday in Pyongyang.

38 North reports that Russia is providing a new peering Internet link out of North Korea. This is a serious move that will increase the NK resilience. Note that there was a emissary to Russia from North Korea sent last week.
http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mwilliams100117/

Trump rhetorically shoots Rex Tillerson, his Secretary of State, in the back. Why would anyone trust Mr. Tillerson to be backed up by Trump now?  Will the Kushners be the actual ambassadors, or other Trump princelings? Truly amazing.  Mr. Tillerson is an adult and probably figures that he can help manage the children in the room; but it's very much resignation material.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/01/trump-tillerson-korea-twitter-243339
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/914497877543735296

In which a commentator argues that Mr. Kim is not crazy, and Americans are almost incapable of recognizing that they have a peer in Asia. I would concur.  I would note that Mr. Kim is famously good at lethal displays of power. There is a persistent thread of thought on the hawk Twitter accounts that North Korea is backwards and we'd roll right over them. I would suggest looking at some videos from North Korea of their mountains and contemplating mountain fighting with a dedicated and angry populace. (exhibit A for mountain fighting is always Afghanistan) Or, e.g., fighting in Seoul or Pyongyang. It'd be a brutal military campaign, and a long one, unless something really effective happened in the first few hours. Between you and me: ain't gonna happen. "A short victorious war" is an idea that got shot dead in Verdun and the Somme, and its zombie needs its head chopped off. This is particularly relevant in the face of the fact that effective information flows from the outside world don't happen in North Korea. So the populace is unprepared to surrender. Anyway. Consider contacting your House representative and pressing for impeachment.

https://deusexatomica.wordpress.com/2017/08/06/hes-fucking-crazy-and-we-need-to-nuke-him-first-kim-jong-un-north-korea-and-nuclear-deterrence/

The Washington Post remarks that the North Koreans are engaged in a brisk trade selling communist bloc spec weapons to countries and private armies around the globe. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-north-korean-ship-was-seized-off-egypt-with-a-huge-cache-of-weapons-destined-for-a-surprising-buyer/2017/10/01/d9a4e06e-a46d-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html

A US deputy secretary of state, Mr. Sullivan, will travel to South Korea later this month. Will Trump stand by any diplomatic achievments he makes? That is the question that will be on the side of everyone's minds as they talk with him.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/02/0200000000AEN20171002000200315.html?sns=tw

The Wall Street Journal continues the anti-NK narrative. Interesting story, though!

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-jong-uns-nephew-was-in-danger-after-fathers-killing-north-korean-group-says-1506861913

Twitter accounts are calling purveyors of nuance and care leftist sympathizers.

The Department of State spokeslady, Ms. Nuart is taking a lot of flak for stating that North Korea can not have the bomb. It is a statement of fact that they do. 

As a side note,  I would also encourage contacting your US House member (If you are American) and pressuring them to move forward on HR 669 ( https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/669 ). HR 669 finds that being the first person in a conflict to use nuclear weapons and requires Congressional authorization for starting a war using nuclear weapons. The United States system is designed around checks and balances; there is no check or balance on the use of nuclear weapons by the US President. 

Summary: Trump is significantly damaging diplomatic efforts.  North Korea has gained a substantial improvement in their communication ability. The United States Government public party line appears to be "Denial".