Sept 30, Saturday evening briefing

Good evening.

It is 12:48 PM in Pyongyang

October 10 is the founding day of the ruling party of Korea; October 18 is the opening day of China's Communist Party. Multiple reports have suggested that North Korea might be interested in commemorating those dates.

Unreliable Twitter accounts are blaming Hillary and Obama for the North Korea problem.

It is claimed that US government hackers have gone after North Korea.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-signed-presidential-directive-ordering-actions-to-pressure-north-korea/2017/09/30/97c6722a-a620-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html 

The US State Department is finding that North Korea is not interested in denuclearization. How (un)surprising. There needs to be some cynical old realpolitiker giving advice here, methinks. Is Kissinger still around to give nasty comments about how hope is not a plan? Because I'm pretty sure that's the operative strategy.
http://thehill.com/policy/international/353257-state-dept-north-korea-has-shown-no-interest-in-talks-on-nuclear-threat

Interestingly, Kissinger did write an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal in mid-August about the matter.  I was unaware of this heretofore. His suggestion is to work with China as equal partner to deliver a high level plan, then bringing in South Korea and Japan as partners in the matter, as they have significant interests in the security of the region. I certainly hope that Secretary of State Tillerson has taken this advice to heart. Kissinger is worth listening to.
http://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/wsj081117.html 

A report claims that a US aircraft carrier will be deployed in the middle of October to the Korean region. This is a significant reinforcement to the US armed forces in the region. It's not unreasonable for the US to shift a heavyweight force to the region and smile widely.

A British tabloid (aka, propaganda outfit) is claiming "top sources say" a special forces group made up of British, American, and South Korean commandos are training to enact regime change. I wonder what the motive there for talking about this is. And, too, is this the decapitation strike South Korean leaders have referenced? For now... take this with a big heaping grain of salt.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/648832/North-Korea-news-Kim-Jong-un-World-War-3-WW3-SAS-US-Delta-Force-soldiers

Fake News enters the picture:

• A Twitter account links to an RT article on the Yellowstone volcano and claims that North Korea could drop a nuclear bomb and destroy the entire US.
• Seeing repeating anti US propaganda spam arguing against war
• Seeing botnets repeating anti US "Anti Imperialist" spam arguing against war.

I think we're seeing where Russia is landing. I speculate that these accounts are Russian in origin. They are operating as "far left" argument actors, which is something long established with Russian links.

 A note on propaganda here... just because propaganda uses some historical facts in its arguments, does not mean that it is true. It is framed to make you think a certain way, or mixed with lies, in order to achieve a specific aim that benefits the propagandaizer. This is commonly used by Drudge, Breitbart, and often the Fox News commentators.  It's a curated version of reality to sway the receiver.

Anyway, Media Round Up.

• CNN - two notes on diplomacy & North Korea
• Fox - "focus on NK Atrocities and China's Shameful role". Yes, I understand that antagonizing the people you want to do something for you is an ideal solution. 
• MSNBC - not much changed since yesterday.
• ABC: A few notes, no specific narrative. 
• Drudge: two notes, no narrative.
• Breitbart: A remarks on China's complying with UN Sanctions.

Summary. 

It seems clear after carefully watching for a few days that only Fox favors war; there are bots arguing both for and against war; the Great Powers and once-Great Powers prefer peace. Certain Americans seem to really favor war, possibly augmented by bots who mimic redneck arguments.

Saturday morning brief

Good morning. It is 11:34 in Pyongyang.

The NY Times reported that IUS Secretary of State Tillerson admitted the US has several backchannels to talk directly with the DPRK. This is very nice to hear. I would, frankly, not be surprised to know that the Foreign Minister Ri is one of those. As profiled yesterday, he is known to be fluent in the Western worldview and thus is a cross-cultural bridge.

A Twitter account claiming to speak for FM Ri denies the NY Times article.  This account doesn't seem to have independent verification of its authenticity though. Not many followers, and pretty recently created. Doesn't really present as a parody account. Possibly a disinformation account?

The NCC  rebuked Trump. I don't know that they have much relevance anymore though.
http://nationalcouncilofchurches.us/nkletter/

North Korea is not happy with the sanctions. I worry that the sanctions are essentially pushing North Korea into a corner. Direct impositions of power often force choices and set up a pride-based confrontation. Humility, that old saw of preachers, is a good position to work from.

Fox taking potshots at prior presidents for not solving North Korean nukes. MSNBC taking things seriously.

Twitter account tenor seems about what it was last night.

Summary:

The big report is the backchannel; all else is roughly the same as last night, barring a few nuggets that crept through.

Friday Night brief

Good evening.

It is 2:34 in Pyongyang, and 11PM in Seattle. I hope everyone reading this is having a reasonably pleasant and peacefilled night with family and friends. I spent the bulk of the evening at a church gathering celebrating some religious study accomplishments. I hope that this kind of evening with friends and social groups can be enjoyed both in the US and the DPRK by ordinary people for many years to come.

On to the news, the more reliable & sophisticated sources....

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri has a profile on him by Reuters. An astute politician well read and well rehearsed in Western thinking. It would be interesting to read a memoir written by him freely and uncensored.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201709290041.html

A commentator suggests to watch actions, rather than words, in the consideration of whether war will occur. That is why I have focused on specific verifiable actions in this blog, along with attempting to understand Twitter influencers. The commentator in Defense One here notes that with Tillerson going to China (and Trump planning an Asia dog n pony show), diplomacy is proceeding.  The big question, according to the commentator, is if a miscalculation occurs and guns start going off.  This is, by the way, one strategic reason the Moscow-DC Hot Line was installed, to ensure fast communication to correct misunderstanding.
http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/09/how-tell-if-north-korea-and-america-are-actually-headed-war/141355/

US Pacific Command notes on Twitter that South Korean, Japanese, and US leaders met to discuss defence strategies. This is intended, at the least, to demonstrate to the world that those are the three major allies of the US in the region.

The NY Times reports South Korea is preparing pre-emptive strike systems, a missile defence system, and a strike force against the NK leadership.

A commentator notes that we had best accept a nuclear NK and heavily implies we had best focus on diplomacy if we're not interested in a utterly bloody war.
https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/welcome-to-the-h-bomb-club-north-korea/

Unsubstantiated reports claim DPRK is shifting missiles, likely in preparation for another test.

Trump's lack of interest in supporting the State Department and diplomacy is hampering the situation, as there is no ambassador to South Korea. This is moronic.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/30/0200000000AEN20170930000400315.html

Once again, we find out that George W. Bush is more competent than Trump at diplomacy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/george-bush-trump-north-korea-travel-ban-2017-9


A survey of twitter suggests that an array of accounts want to send liberals to north korea as punishment. Likely, these accounts are bots... Other accounts claim to not understand how nuance and interests work - "empathizing with NoKo"  has become wrong. It's a good idea to get into the head of your adversary, whether in war or diplomatic negotiation.  My question: how many of these are Gen-ew-uine American Warhawks, and how many of these are bots. Some definitely are bots. Who benefits from nuclear war, that is my question... Russia? An America wound up to full xenophobia on a 100% war footing is not a pleasant sight for a Great Power to consider. Russia has been recently exposed as attempting to deliver divisive messages to the US populace. Worth considering - who benefits?

In summary: might be another missile test coming up. Trump's not really being a great diplomat (still/again), and there's a large array of screaming twitter accounts lusting for war. 

Friday morning summary

Good Morning this Friday!

It is 12:27 a. m. in Pyongyang

From the "more reputable sources" section of Twitter....

• A report claims Russia and North Korean diplomats begin talks (as per expectation)
• South Korea's ambassador is working on minimizing China's upsetness over the SK THAAD antimissile system. 
• Some level of sesmic activity from the NK region, estimated to be natural.

Trump will make an Asia circuit in November. This is a good idea.

And from the less reputable...

• NK Korea H bombs are a globalist conspiracy.
• Fake News charges are being levelled at the media for disagreeing with Trump
• Definitely seeing a ton of bots arguing pro-war. Wonder who is running those? US right-wingers?

Summary: no substantial change

DPRK evening briefing

Good evening.

It is 2:26 PM in Pyongyang right now.

Flipping through my copy of the Encyclopedia Britannica on the Korean War, the writer remarks that during the first retreat of the North Koreans, the levels of atrocities and vicious reactions were comparable to the Thirty Years War in Europe. This is a remarkable statement. It implies the state of the war was vicious, malicious, and without respect for law, far beyond the norm for a battlefield. The writer further noted that after the front had stabilized, the United States & allied forces (the UNC) essentially levelled major North Korean cities. In my opinion, this probably merits a full State Apology in the course to peace.  Apologies cost nothing, but can soothe hurts and feelings of injustice.

The writer also notes that the North Koreans impressed many South Koreans into the army and used many others as slave labor. This too merits a full State Apology in my opinion.

Anyway, on to the news.

Secretary of Defense Mattis reaffirms friendship with Australians.

The US commander in South Korea got decorated by the South Koreans.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/09/28/0301000000AEN20170928007300315.html?sns=tw

The US Defense Department spokesperson says, "the US seeks only the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula...".
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1323408/dod-us-seeks-only-peaceful-denuclearization-of-korean-peninsula/

The New York Times reports that Ukraine caught two North Korean spies a few years ago who were trying to steal rocket development materials.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/28/world/europe/north-korea-ukraine-missiles.html

38 North, a North Korean watch site, has a report on how the DPRK has been improving the lives of their citizens with disabilities. It makes me wonder what other lines of approachment might yield fruit. I think the stick approach favored by Trump, Obama, Bush, and possibly even Clinton are simply not yielding good results.
http://www.38north.org/2017/09/jfeffer092817/

However, a defector notes in 2014 that he was treated badly due to his disability. I have a certain grain of salt about the more horrific things reported, because the lack of free press in North Korea gives a big leverage to gossip networks and does not allow accountability. Who knows what a game of Telephone would look like in that kind of situation?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11286517/North-Korea-leaves-disabled-to-die.html

38 North also observes the continued development of a submersible ballistic missile.
http://www.38north.org/2017/09/nampo092817/

John Huntsman has been named the Ambassador to Russia by unanimous acclamation of the US Senate. Mr. Huntsman has a long and successful career under many Presidents and has served as Governor of Utah, as well as Ambassador to China under President Obama. He is a true adult in the room, and I am glad to see someone with his track record working on such a sensitive post.

IAEA notes that NK poses a new level of threat and has done significant progress in its nuclear program.

The US appreciates China stepping up sanctions. Note that this will put NK in a bind - if they start running low on food and other supplies, they risk destablization. How can NK move away from nuclear weaponization and save face? My understand is that is not compatible with Juche. Although, of course, the leader of NK, like other tyrants, can redefine philosophies to suit the needs of the moment.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/29/0200000000AEN20170929000200315.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/28/china-support-for-north-korea-clampdown-growing-says-us-official.html

South Korea's ambassador to Russia suggests that Russia should be playing a significant role in addressing the situation and working towards reunification. I bet Putin just loves hearing that! I imagine a unified Korea would have to shift considerably towards being neutral in the Great Power politics of this time as opposed to being a completely US ally. Otherwise China would be rather unhappy to have a "US Puppet State" or whatever the current nomenclature is on its border.
http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170929005700315&domain=3&ctype=A&site=0100000000

The Daily Mail (a right wing propaganda site in the UK), has gotten its hands on some images of paintings that they claim to be from North Korea depicting war atrocities in North Korea. (1) these pictures are horrific  (2) The Encyclopedia Britannica notes that there were a lot of atrocities then, and  includes the American soldiers among the perpetrators. So while these paintings may be inaccurate and horrific: it's likely at least reflective of a reality. I've also included here a link to an Intercept article (The Intercept has a strong socialist bias and generally anti-American bias, they aren't good at context), which gives a few notes about the matter and some photos. To be clear: there were massive amounts of death during this war: roughly 3 million people died.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4928854/Horrific-North-Korean-propaganda-paintings.html
https://theintercept.com/2017/05/03/why-do-north-koreans-hate-us-one-reason-they-remember-the-korean-war/
http://necrometrics.com/20c1m.htm#Ko (I advise reading the Atrocities section).

The US is looking to have more flybys, according to Twitter users translations of Korean language reports.  And it looks like North Korea isn't too keen on the idea (big shock there). So I expect a flyby, and an attempt to shoot a US aircraft down, I think.

It also looks like the weather is clear over the Korean Peninsula. So maybe we get another test launch this weekend.

Spherical geometry means that North Korean nukes aimed at the US might pass over Russia. That could be awkward for US attempts at missile defense...
http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/09/if-north-korea-fires-icbm-us-might-have-shoot-it-down-over-russia/141376/


Two reports!

A California county has put together a nuclear explosion response plan. Probably worth studying.
http://www.vcstar.com/story/news/local/2017/09/27/what-do-nuclear-explosion-ventura-county-has-plan/705170001/

Whitehall (UK) has a report on a Korean War Scenario
https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-reports/preparing-war-korea

Reportedly, Russia is doing some airborne drills near the NK border.


The majority view on the Twitter hashtags by the non-serious (i.e., the people who are just running their mouth) seems to be WAR WAR WAR. Also liberals caused it all.  But, they might be bots or propaganda accouts. Some pro-war bot activity is apparent! some more sophisticated than others. Weird things like accounts posing as both news and individuals. A lot of slurs on Obama as the cause of this crisis.


News Media Roundup (Remember Drudge and Breitbart are propaganda sites; Fox is heavily biased, as is The Intercept):

• CNN: Front page! "Confused by Trump, North Korea contacts ex-US officials". The US is confused by Trump too! CNN notes that the coroner contradicts the building rightwing narrative around torture.  CNN has some writeups about life inside Pyongyang. 
• MSNBC still running their NK tag, new segments from Rachel Maddow and Morning Joe
• ABC has a few notes, nothing new.
• FoxNews: Screaming about the 'antifa', no NK
• Breitbart: Only 1 segment reporting on NK's claim that Trump was lying about Warmbier's torture (again, the coroner's claims are in coherence with NK's claim).
• Drudge: running a few links, the ones I've already covered.
• The Intercept has nothing visible
• NY Times has a few notes on what we've already seen.

Summary

In summary, it looks like there's some expectation of activity soon; there's a bit of puffery in words. There's a lot of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, but the curtains are waving and you can see the figures doing things, but you don't quite see what yet. NK has not yet secured its place where it can feel unthreatened by the US, and the US has not publically allowed a scenario in their dem\ands where nuclearization-but-agreement-to-not-use is a thing, so the situation remains unstable. 

DPRK morning briefing

Good morning

It is 11:41 PM Seoul Time

US & Japanese forces are doing tactical training together, according to US Pacific Command

A report claims is China enforcing sanctions vs NK
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/28/0200000000AEN20170928011800315.html?sns=tw

South Korea expects more provocations mid-October - the 10th and the 18th. I believe these are important dates to North Korea.  In any case, the current macho/braggadocio situation has no diplomatic offramp yet: face must be saved on both sides.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-southkorea/south-korea-expects-more-provocative-acts-by-north-korea-in-mid-october-idUSKCN1C3073

A report by South Korean state media (Yonap) claims that NK foreign ministry rejects claims of torture of Warmbier. The coroner's statements support this claim by North Korea.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/28/0200000000AEN20170928012200315.html?input=rss

A Twitter account suggests Warmbier tried to hang himself, causing the brain damage, etc. No citations. I wonder if this is supported by the evidence. It seems at least a plausible narrative. But I won't believe it until a medical team makes the claim and releases a detailed report.

US State Bureau of East Asia and Pacific affairs reiterates that the US is willing and committed to defending itself and allies from any attack.

A report exists claiming that North Korea claims that many North Koreans volunteered for the army because they were angry at the US. Uh-huh. I think at work we describe that state as "voluntold", not "volunteered". But it's a sign that NK is doing something with a reserve force, I think. But I wouldn't per se trust that, as it's a propaganda claim by a famously hyperbolic state.

Also, US Sec of State Tillerson is meeting with the Vatican's foreign minister in an effort to resolve issues with NK. Curious. I wonder if the SoS is leaning on the Vatican as a staffed diplomatic service, because the US State Dept is inadequately staffed.
https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/912739952911425536

I don't have time this morning to do a full sweep of the twitter hashtags, but activity seems higher than it did yesterday. Some level of pro-war bots. Some level of pro-war blogging by conservatives. (are these bots? unsure), This means I should probably dig up a tweet-reading library and get some heuristics going.

Same for US media, no time to do the full sweep. No chance on MSNBC. CNN doesn't mention it. Fox does, and is starting to beat the pro war drum, partially based on the false reports relating to Warmbier. This is your regular reminder that Fox is not a reliable news source: they are an ideological outlet, not a news outlet.

Summary: China is apparently getting real. US conservatives will be getting all fired up to go after the "terrorist state of North Korea".

Next update this evening, as little is likely to happen overnight on the Korean Peninsula.

DPRK evening briefing

Good evening.

It is 9:06 AM in Seoul as I write this.

Warmbier was well cared for after an incident that caused brain damage. No signs whatsoever of torture, Coroner says. His parents apparently are making stuff up? North Korea has not released medical records, regrettably. I would suggest they do so, it would, hopefully, simmer down the conspiracy theorists. The AEI is supporting the Warmbiers though, and the AEI is ideologically driving the GOP these days.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/otto-warmbier-had-breathing-tube-n-korea-exam-shows-n805191?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma 
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2017/09/27/hamilton-county-coroner-speak-otto-warmbier-report/708719001/
http://www.aei.org/publication/the-warmbiers-are-right-north-korea-should-be-back-on-the-state-sponsors-of-terror-list/

It is very important to realize that the Warmbier business is basically being used one of the justifications for a "Just War" on North Korea. We do not know the detailed facts of what occurred with Mr. Warmbier, other than that he had an issue, was medically cared for, and is now dead.  One man's death, however regrettable, does not constitute a rationale for going to war.

An Israeli write up claims that biological & chemical weapons of all sorts are a chief danger in a shooting war with North Korea. https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/north-korea-wmd/

US Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) suggests having China emplace a peacekeeping force in return for denuclearization. To quote him, "We have to overcome North Korea's distrust of our motives," he said." I would agree with the Senator. Trust is required here. We need to understand each other's motives and live in harmony.
http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170928000200315&site=0200000000&mobile

The US is looking to have a full trade embargo against  NK, according to the US state news agency, Voice of America.
https://www.voanews.com/a/full-trade-embargo-will-be-result-of-latest-us-sanctions-on-north-korea/4046987.html

South Korea has completed a test of an anti-missile system, according to the South Korean state news agency, Yonap. Juicily, this remark is in the article:

The South's military is seeking to beef up its ability to remove North Korea's leadership in the event of an emergency situation, responding to its communist neighbor's continued provocations and threats.

This note is derived from the SK Defence minister's remarks earlier this month.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/09/27/0301000000AEN20170927002000315.html

Contrary to prior reports, this report claims NK is preparing for war, based on another Yonap report. This is related to the earlier reports of troop movement on the NK east coast.
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/09/north-korea-appears-preparing-war/#Cyg6vH3ji0JM4mpf.97 

Some statements regarding the NK diplomat sent to Russia. Nothing of substance: they want to open up channels to the US relating to things.  http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3038983

US Pacific Command reminds everyone (via Twitter) that they are watchful and ready to defend in event of attack. They also remarked on medic training exercises with the Eighth Army, stationed in South Korea. "Hello, we're heeeere", is what I take from their statements.

Some experts discuss the ways a war would play out. Like this writer, they conclude it'll be a genuine real war, with tons of casulties - a genuine mess.
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-korean-war-20170925-story.html?linkId=100000001245228

These authors claim a live H-bomb test would not constitute an act of war, although it might wind up causing an incitement to war. I submit that Trump does not care about the law (and has never cared about the law) sufficiently to care about these petty details.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/north-korean-nuclear-weapons-test-the-pacific-ocean-act-war-22484

This report claims that in South Korea the US army dependents were misled to attempt to evacuate. I have not seen corrobating reports yet.
https://news.clearancejobs.com/2017/09/27/korea-dependents-fake-evacuation-orders/

Twitter sentiment currently split between heavy hawks and a few doves. The hawks are really into war. Note that right now discouraging war is being tarred by the hardcore hawks as being supporting North Korea and being a Democrat. Exhibit:

First the #Democrats came out in support of #Antifa, then #NorthKorea and now #DisrespectingTheFlag.

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii . Pretty dumb. Avoiding nuclear war should be a clear duty of every human being. War should only be the last resort, and considered as tearfully and soberly as turning off a life support system for a relative you love. You don't get sober choices by partisan identity politics.

Not seeing piles of bot activity, although I'm picking up a little bit of it, nothing full out trolly yet.

North Korea officially notes that they had "more mass demonstrations" against the United States. Strange how perfectly organized the people are standing. I'm going to go out and guess these aren't spontaneous.
http://exploredprk.com/news/more-mass-rallies-held/

A report on Twitter claims we have seen 7 new missile systems in 2017 from North Korea.

For the US Media Website Headline Roundup (please note Drudge and Breitbart are populist and nationalist propaganda, respectively):

• CNN - no mention of Korea
• FoxNews -
•  A Fox News Poll says that Trump's talk isn't helpful on NK. (note, Trump's use of Twitter has nearly complete bipartisan agreement AFAICT: shut the dang thing off).
• Reports Coroner's report that Warmbier didn't get tortured.
• MSNBC - Front-paged a tag that gathers all NK coverage. Morning Joe did a segment with a retired admiral telling Trump to can it, apparently. A lot of coverage via video segments from Rachel Maddow and Morning Joe.
• ABC - Notes the Coroner says evidence unclear re Warmbier, along with a segment on the NK-China border.
• Drudge - nada. 
• Breitbart - couple segments listed. Seems to be lukewarm on war, but does headline a segment on the Warmbier parents complaining that NK are terrorists

Summary:

US seems to have homegrown hawks agitating for war, per usual. Reputable and disreputable media are not pushing for war. North Korea is doing some troop movements, but not mobilizing. Suggestion has been that they want to play games with US fighters doing fly-bies. South Korea isn't mobilizing. US isn't mobilizing. China asking both sides to stop yelling and talk. Russia not saying much, but doing troop exercises nearby.  Trump running mouth, but US pursuing economic sanctions. Expectation of the next step of NK is that they will do a large ICBM test to tell the US to piss off. 

DPRK noon briefing

Your noon summary of what I'm seeing...

It is 3:27 AM in Seoul.

Some claim Warmbier was tortured. It has been claimed that the coroners report has no evidence of that. Haven't dug into that.

Nuclear reactor fuel is probably being made in the DPRK, not imported.

It has been claimed that China is doing importing of NK coal. It has been claimed that Chinese entities routinely skirt UN sanctions.  China, per last blog post, wants to stabilize the situation, and that implies not getting NK too desperate. I would guess they wink at a certain amount of sanction-breaking.

The Atlantic notes that a preventative war is traditionally off the table in the US due to our morals and standards ( as opposed to a preventative strike to avoid an immediate danger).
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/preemption-prevention-north-korea/541098

The BBC has a Korean-language service now running in South Korea, but it has been claimed NK is jamming it. It is worth noting that there's a certain amount of information from the outside that is today regularly getting into NK elite's hands. A free radio service getting to the common people of North Korea would be incendiary over time, I expect.

Ron Paul /  LaRouche are arguing for using economic development to bind NK to the path of peace.  Frankly, I'd agree - let's all get to a point where we can easily raise a beer together and laugh at how silly we used to be.

The East Coast of the USA is doing an "Emergency Alert System" test. Which should say something about how serious this all is.

I (human) don't see any significant bot activity right now in the hashtags I'm monitoring.

I may code up a bot-analysis system over the next few days to monitor more hashtags automatically and flag ones that are suspicious (e.g., copypaste, usernames ending with weird numbers).

DPRK morning brief

Morning round-up.

It is now 1:30 AM in Seoul

US looking at deploying resources to South Korea later this year or early next year (http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/27/0200000000AEN20170927012300315.html)

US military chiefs are willing to back Trump up if military option becomes reasonable. But, a former CIA director suggests that while NK is doing what it usually does, Trump is provoking right back.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-09-27/military-chiefs-back-trump-on-north-korea

USA Secretary of Defense visited Afghanistan and India over the past 24 hours.

The #DPRK and #NoKo hashtag is full of pro-war Twitter accounts.  There's an account arguing that North Korea was a terrorist training center.

The Bulletin suggests that China's big interest is preventing another war. The Korean war took a heavy toll on them. China's big ask here is:

We hope that the United States will incorporate the following four “don’ts” into its relevant policies regarding the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: [D]on’t seek regime change; don’t incite a collapse of the regime; don’t seek an accelerated reunification effort of the peninsula; and don’t send its military north of the [38th] parallel.

http://thebulletin.org/north-korea-don%E2%80%99t-expect-china-change11145

More actual fallout from Warmbier - an adjunct prof of anthropology was harsh towards Warmbier and didn't get rehired. A new front in the culture wars just opened up, I think.... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/06/26/university-delaware-cuts-ties-professor-who-said-warmbier-deserved-die/427846001/

Some breakdown of NK consumer tech. Baaasically, Big Brother, bro! https://dprktech.info/

Seeing NK as backwards, dumb, etc, causes major interpretive issues. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/27/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-fuel.html?_r=0

DPRK notes

Notes taken over the last 12 hours. Future updates will come in on blogger and be cc'd to mastodon.

That's weird. suddenly a twitter campaign in the last hour ranting about how koreans eat dog. (I really don't care).

Bolton (a hardcore hawk) is arguing for pre-emtive strikes.

Some poor guy got shot near the DMZ, but reports are indistinct at this point.

The parents of guy who got jailed in NK and sent back to die are pissed off and calling NK "terrorists". They are being used as props in the current drama, looks like.

Hey, what appears to be an official NK site: http://exploredprk.com . It is not approximately a backwards country in tech if you look at the tools used.

http://behindthecurtain.asia/ essentially a private spy made a apple-only book on NK.

The US is demanding 100% denuclearization. Why? Face? Pride? Won't work.

China and Russia looking to try to stabilize the situation. Some Russian troop movement, but I"m unsure of the implications.

Japan's PM Abe has called a snap election, hoping to stregnthen his position. There's instability there. But, he can actually deal with Trump, a major bonus. (when will he be backstabbed??)

Looks like the South Korean soldier was probably killed by a live-fire training by South Korea nearby. Note that these sorts of things *happen* in military training. When some poor sod gets killed, and there's not a clear indication of a shooting war, "unintentional mistake" is the typical result.source for the note

Oh here we go, here's Foreign Minister of NK's Official Submitted Statement in that inflammatory response recently. Strongly advise reading. Not as inflammatory as even the more reputable US news orgs made it out to be.

A report exists claiming that there is NK troop movement to east border, readiness increased.

Random trump types on The Twitters wanting to send liberals to NK because we dislike Trump.

Note on propaganda. Russia and China have significant incentive to tamp this situation down. They don't want a full US deployment sitting off *both* of their borders grinning. My speculation is that their bots and propagandaists will start playing the anti-war games (and boy howdy I hope that works)

I have, by the way, a huge anti-nuclear-war bias. I understand realpolitik and that yeah, war is sometimes required because that's humanity. But I loathe the idea of WMDs being deployed.

At this point in the updates, it's 10:15 AM Seoul time. A full day of work is underway for our fellow-humans on the Korean peninsula.

Reports exist claiming the US is going to run a carrier group into NK waters(I doubt that, it's a huge provocation).

Reports exist claiming that US/SK joint forces - bombers & fighters - will be flying by and grinning at NK (like the B1 run a few nights ago). This seems likely.

UN sanctions have been laid down, for what good /that/ does. Meh. Probably time to give up the sanctions game.

The US Secretary of State is going to visit China.

A NK specialist in the US is heading to Russia to talk.

A few bots are starting to agitate relating to the Warmbier death at NK hands. Fox Live Talking Heads are pounding it right now I guess. Haven't checked the US propaganda outlets yet (breitbart, drudge).

Nothing unusual by NK military says US general; says NK wants nukes for regime survival

And for a round up of the 10:30PM Seattle time news:

• The right-wing on Twitter is getting triggered over Warmbier on #noko hashtag.
• A few bots are copypasting war-boosting propaganda over Warmbier.
• Drudge Report is screaming about hillary and how Obamacare isn't repealed. No Korea whatsoever.
• Breitbart is howling over the AL Senate election and has 2 small links on Korea - one Warmbier and one of a NK propaganda video.
• Fox is aligned with Brietbart on this: very NFL focused. Minimal NK coverage.
• MSNBC: no Korea, just dragging Trump.
• CNN: front page Korea, a bit of information.
• Then, the NYT has a more meditative article on it.

In summary, as I close up the TrumpenWarring notes for the night, the rightwing media are mostly ignoring it, the right-wingers are starting to foam on Twitter, and a couple bots are whipping up war.

Stand in solidarity with your society.

One big thing I argue for repeatedly on the Mastodon fediverse is to not disengage from the social systems and big institutions. They are required for a high-complexity society such as ours, and one of the major keys to keeping them working is engagement and accountability, so that you can trust them, because you're involved and because you can believe in the accountability structures.

A canonical error of thinking is the Occupy Wall Street-style thinking of "the elites hate us", or the "elites want to oppress us". That's not how it typically works outside of very unusual confluences of history. Thinking that the 1% are out to get you is conspiracy theory thinking.  The elites are not a homogeneous force. They are human, with all the fractiousness that implies. They have an interest in maintaining the status quo. But, many elites throughout history understand the balance between their interests and the interests of the total society. Britain in the 1800s, for instance, transitioned from a monarchy to a Parliament, and by the time World War One had ended, the king had no power. This took a lot of work - a lot of protests and social tension - and many people had to be persuaded - or outmaneuvered - but it happened. The aristocracy chose (in total) to allow change rather than, like Tsarist Russia, suppress change.

Now, that is not to say there aren't groups working to discredit and damage Western society and your particular small group. There are significantly organized nasty actors out there. To name a few.... Hoover's FBI. Some CIA. Some FSB. AQ. AfD. KKK. ISIL. Etc. Disorganizing and disengaging from your society and becoming insular or non-participatory gives them power to coopt your society. The TV show South Park is a poison in this regard - it discourages participation, and gives a handy narrative to mock people who care about their place.

The last 30-40 years of Boomer and Gen X disengagement and cynicism have given us Trump and the alt-right/alt-light/KKK resurgence, because many of the chaos people - the Chaotic Neutral, the Chaotic Good, the Neutral Good - they walked away, because '60s dogma said "be yourself". That was a terrible mistake. The people left over in power are more authoritarians, you see. You can't just be yourself and encourage everyone else to be their own cell. That's not how societies work. There are family structures, justice structures, plumbing structures. By walking away from organizing, collective action, and institution building, you both make yourself vulnerable and make your society worse. One human, one individual is an assailable island.

Solidarity is a big deal, folks. Unions are built out of that principle. So are armies. A company is a group of people in common purpose. Think about that, and the power of mass action. 

Engage, fight for accountability, fight for your principles. Demand transparency. Remove corruption, even when it benefits you.