DPRK morning briefing

Good morning

It is 11:41 PM Seoul Time

US & Japanese forces are doing tactical training together, according to US Pacific Command

A report claims is China enforcing sanctions vs NK
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/28/0200000000AEN20170928011800315.html?sns=tw

South Korea expects more provocations mid-October - the 10th and the 18th. I believe these are important dates to North Korea.  In any case, the current macho/braggadocio situation has no diplomatic offramp yet: face must be saved on both sides.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-southkorea/south-korea-expects-more-provocative-acts-by-north-korea-in-mid-october-idUSKCN1C3073

A report by South Korean state media (Yonap) claims that NK foreign ministry rejects claims of torture of Warmbier. The coroner's statements support this claim by North Korea.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/28/0200000000AEN20170928012200315.html?input=rss

A Twitter account suggests Warmbier tried to hang himself, causing the brain damage, etc. No citations. I wonder if this is supported by the evidence. It seems at least a plausible narrative. But I won't believe it until a medical team makes the claim and releases a detailed report.

US State Bureau of East Asia and Pacific affairs reiterates that the US is willing and committed to defending itself and allies from any attack.

A report exists claiming that North Korea claims that many North Koreans volunteered for the army because they were angry at the US. Uh-huh. I think at work we describe that state as "voluntold", not "volunteered". But it's a sign that NK is doing something with a reserve force, I think. But I wouldn't per se trust that, as it's a propaganda claim by a famously hyperbolic state.

Also, US Sec of State Tillerson is meeting with the Vatican's foreign minister in an effort to resolve issues with NK. Curious. I wonder if the SoS is leaning on the Vatican as a staffed diplomatic service, because the US State Dept is inadequately staffed.
https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/912739952911425536

I don't have time this morning to do a full sweep of the twitter hashtags, but activity seems higher than it did yesterday. Some level of pro-war bots. Some level of pro-war blogging by conservatives. (are these bots? unsure), This means I should probably dig up a tweet-reading library and get some heuristics going.

Same for US media, no time to do the full sweep. No chance on MSNBC. CNN doesn't mention it. Fox does, and is starting to beat the pro war drum, partially based on the false reports relating to Warmbier. This is your regular reminder that Fox is not a reliable news source: they are an ideological outlet, not a news outlet.

Summary: China is apparently getting real. US conservatives will be getting all fired up to go after the "terrorist state of North Korea".

Next update this evening, as little is likely to happen overnight on the Korean Peninsula.

DPRK evening briefing

Good evening.

It is 9:06 AM in Seoul as I write this.

Warmbier was well cared for after an incident that caused brain damage. No signs whatsoever of torture, Coroner says. His parents apparently are making stuff up? North Korea has not released medical records, regrettably. I would suggest they do so, it would, hopefully, simmer down the conspiracy theorists. The AEI is supporting the Warmbiers though, and the AEI is ideologically driving the GOP these days.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/otto-warmbier-had-breathing-tube-n-korea-exam-shows-n805191?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma 
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2017/09/27/hamilton-county-coroner-speak-otto-warmbier-report/708719001/
http://www.aei.org/publication/the-warmbiers-are-right-north-korea-should-be-back-on-the-state-sponsors-of-terror-list/

It is very important to realize that the Warmbier business is basically being used one of the justifications for a "Just War" on North Korea. We do not know the detailed facts of what occurred with Mr. Warmbier, other than that he had an issue, was medically cared for, and is now dead.  One man's death, however regrettable, does not constitute a rationale for going to war.

An Israeli write up claims that biological & chemical weapons of all sorts are a chief danger in a shooting war with North Korea. https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/north-korea-wmd/

US Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) suggests having China emplace a peacekeeping force in return for denuclearization. To quote him, "We have to overcome North Korea's distrust of our motives," he said." I would agree with the Senator. Trust is required here. We need to understand each other's motives and live in harmony.
http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170928000200315&site=0200000000&mobile

The US is looking to have a full trade embargo against  NK, according to the US state news agency, Voice of America.
https://www.voanews.com/a/full-trade-embargo-will-be-result-of-latest-us-sanctions-on-north-korea/4046987.html

South Korea has completed a test of an anti-missile system, according to the South Korean state news agency, Yonap. Juicily, this remark is in the article:

The South's military is seeking to beef up its ability to remove North Korea's leadership in the event of an emergency situation, responding to its communist neighbor's continued provocations and threats.

This note is derived from the SK Defence minister's remarks earlier this month.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/09/27/0301000000AEN20170927002000315.html

Contrary to prior reports, this report claims NK is preparing for war, based on another Yonap report. This is related to the earlier reports of troop movement on the NK east coast.
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/09/north-korea-appears-preparing-war/#Cyg6vH3ji0JM4mpf.97 

Some statements regarding the NK diplomat sent to Russia. Nothing of substance: they want to open up channels to the US relating to things.  http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3038983

US Pacific Command reminds everyone (via Twitter) that they are watchful and ready to defend in event of attack. They also remarked on medic training exercises with the Eighth Army, stationed in South Korea. "Hello, we're heeeere", is what I take from their statements.

Some experts discuss the ways a war would play out. Like this writer, they conclude it'll be a genuine real war, with tons of casulties - a genuine mess.
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-korean-war-20170925-story.html?linkId=100000001245228

These authors claim a live H-bomb test would not constitute an act of war, although it might wind up causing an incitement to war. I submit that Trump does not care about the law (and has never cared about the law) sufficiently to care about these petty details.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/north-korean-nuclear-weapons-test-the-pacific-ocean-act-war-22484

This report claims that in South Korea the US army dependents were misled to attempt to evacuate. I have not seen corrobating reports yet.
https://news.clearancejobs.com/2017/09/27/korea-dependents-fake-evacuation-orders/

Twitter sentiment currently split between heavy hawks and a few doves. The hawks are really into war. Note that right now discouraging war is being tarred by the hardcore hawks as being supporting North Korea and being a Democrat. Exhibit:

First the #Democrats came out in support of #Antifa, then #NorthKorea and now #DisrespectingTheFlag.

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii . Pretty dumb. Avoiding nuclear war should be a clear duty of every human being. War should only be the last resort, and considered as tearfully and soberly as turning off a life support system for a relative you love. You don't get sober choices by partisan identity politics.

Not seeing piles of bot activity, although I'm picking up a little bit of it, nothing full out trolly yet.

North Korea officially notes that they had "more mass demonstrations" against the United States. Strange how perfectly organized the people are standing. I'm going to go out and guess these aren't spontaneous.
http://exploredprk.com/news/more-mass-rallies-held/

A report on Twitter claims we have seen 7 new missile systems in 2017 from North Korea.

For the US Media Website Headline Roundup (please note Drudge and Breitbart are populist and nationalist propaganda, respectively):

• CNN - no mention of Korea
• FoxNews -
•  A Fox News Poll says that Trump's talk isn't helpful on NK. (note, Trump's use of Twitter has nearly complete bipartisan agreement AFAICT: shut the dang thing off).
• Reports Coroner's report that Warmbier didn't get tortured.
• MSNBC - Front-paged a tag that gathers all NK coverage. Morning Joe did a segment with a retired admiral telling Trump to can it, apparently. A lot of coverage via video segments from Rachel Maddow and Morning Joe.
• ABC - Notes the Coroner says evidence unclear re Warmbier, along with a segment on the NK-China border.
• Drudge - nada. 
• Breitbart - couple segments listed. Seems to be lukewarm on war, but does headline a segment on the Warmbier parents complaining that NK are terrorists

Summary:

US seems to have homegrown hawks agitating for war, per usual. Reputable and disreputable media are not pushing for war. North Korea is doing some troop movements, but not mobilizing. Suggestion has been that they want to play games with US fighters doing fly-bies. South Korea isn't mobilizing. US isn't mobilizing. China asking both sides to stop yelling and talk. Russia not saying much, but doing troop exercises nearby.  Trump running mouth, but US pursuing economic sanctions. Expectation of the next step of NK is that they will do a large ICBM test to tell the US to piss off. 

DPRK noon briefing

Your noon summary of what I'm seeing...

It is 3:27 AM in Seoul.

Some claim Warmbier was tortured. It has been claimed that the coroners report has no evidence of that. Haven't dug into that.

Nuclear reactor fuel is probably being made in the DPRK, not imported.

It has been claimed that China is doing importing of NK coal. It has been claimed that Chinese entities routinely skirt UN sanctions.  China, per last blog post, wants to stabilize the situation, and that implies not getting NK too desperate. I would guess they wink at a certain amount of sanction-breaking.

The Atlantic notes that a preventative war is traditionally off the table in the US due to our morals and standards ( as opposed to a preventative strike to avoid an immediate danger).
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/preemption-prevention-north-korea/541098

The BBC has a Korean-language service now running in South Korea, but it has been claimed NK is jamming it. It is worth noting that there's a certain amount of information from the outside that is today regularly getting into NK elite's hands. A free radio service getting to the common people of North Korea would be incendiary over time, I expect.

Ron Paul /  LaRouche are arguing for using economic development to bind NK to the path of peace.  Frankly, I'd agree - let's all get to a point where we can easily raise a beer together and laugh at how silly we used to be.

The East Coast of the USA is doing an "Emergency Alert System" test. Which should say something about how serious this all is.

I (human) don't see any significant bot activity right now in the hashtags I'm monitoring.

I may code up a bot-analysis system over the next few days to monitor more hashtags automatically and flag ones that are suspicious (e.g., copypaste, usernames ending with weird numbers).