Wednesday night quick brief

Good evening.

It's 1:36PM in Pyongyang.

Long day, so this will be a quick brief.

It's suggested by different sources that Oct 9 or 10 would be another test. Stay aware, don't panic.

Secretary of State Tillerson is definitely staying, or so he says (A popular song in the Trump administration, often days before being fired or resigning).

Yonap claims that US channels shut down after the most recent nuclear test.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/10/05/0200000000AEN20171005000600315.html?input=rss

It's reported that North Korean workers are being exported to work in terrible conditions. Regrettably, the Workers Parties always seem to be bad for the workers.
https://apnews.com/8b493b7df6e147e98d19f3abb5ca090a


Doesn't seem like much of moment going on. I kind of like that....

Tuesday evening brief, Oct 3

Good evening.

It is 1:19PM in Pyongyang.

US Pacific Command is doing short range defense exercises with South Korea.
https://www.army.mil/article/194581/

38 North remarks on the 1980 uprising in South Korea. Perusing through the documents 38 North presents, it seems clear that the North Koreans had, at that time, a definite feeling of solidarity with the South Koreans. I wonder if a reunification could be accomplished that would defang the threat of nuclear war. It's tolerable to have neutral nations have nukes, you know...
http://www.38north.org/2017/10/tshorrock100317/

Congress is running its nose into diplomacy. This signals a significant loss of faith in POTUS, as the role of POTUS is, among other things,  to generally conduct foreign policy - by the constitution.  I don't, personally, find the idea of diminishing the powers of the President - of any party - to be a poor idea. Shame that it takes a Trump to do it though.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/353622-bipartisan-bill-would-toughen-north-korea-sanctions-require-trumps-strategy

Miscellaneous hawks on Twitter questing for war and bashing caution as liberal and peaceniks.

Summary: crickets.

Tuesday morning brief

Good morning.

It is 11:50 PM in Pyongyang.

The Trump administration has officials trying to smooth over differences between Mr. Tillerson and Trump. The Trump line is that diplomacy via direct talking is over. I question how change is intended to occur.....
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/10/trump-administration-says-not-time-talk-north-korea/#OCvF6luooBp0Koku.97
http://www.gulf-times.com/story/566018

The official transcript of the Secretary's remarks is here. It only confirms to me that Trump is unreliable and looking for war.
https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/09/274563.htm

A breakdown of the United States decision making timeline for a response to nuclear ICBM attack.  I advise reading, because reality should not be avoided. It's too early for a stiff drink, but I rather would like one now.
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/launch-under-attack-feasible/

Putin calls for restraint. Note that Russia borders North Korea on the far northeast. If war breaks out, it will certainly force Russia to address it. Like China, Russia largely benefits from a stable peninsula. One wonders if Putin has buyer's remorse over Trump's election.
http://tass.com/politics/968636

The Wall Street Journal was able to send a video crew into Pyongyang. They remark on the prosperousness and high level of the standard of living. I encourage you to watch the video.
http://www.wsj.com/video/inside-north-korea-with-wsj-reporters/2303BBB7-6DBB-4DE5-B8EA-EEDE98419922.html

The EU contacts in North Korea are going a bit dim.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-eu/eus-diplomatic-back-channel-in-pyongyang-goes-cold-idUSKCN1C81SM

And finally, black humor.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/09/nuclear-mindfulness

Unreliable sources

The twitter account claiming to be FM Ri of North Korea keeps posting that NK wants normal relations and recognitiion as a nuclear state. While I have no confirmation of that account, it at least harmonizes with typical Communist propaganda.

Saw my first well-designed pro-war meme come through; looks like it first was cooked up in April.

There's a set of complaints that Trump is being "Weak" for not starting the war already.


Summary
The Trump administration is incoherent and pulling in two different directions: peace (Mattis, Tillerson) and war (Trump). Trump, regrettably, is harder to fire than Mattis or Tillerson.